What happens after ISIS falls?
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What happens after ISIS falls?


The terrorist group ISIS is losing. At the
end of 2014 they claimed a territory the size of Great Britain and a population
of 11 million people. But today it’s lost about 60% of that and its population is
down to about two and a half million. It’s the result of fighting its enemies
on all sides. To the west and north, ISIS is fighting armed rebel groups and the Russian-backed Syrian military and it’s allies. It’s also fighting Turkish troops and US-backed Kurdish forces in the north. And to the east and south, there’s the US backed Iraqi army. It was this Iraqi army that delivered the latest blow when
they took over Isis’s biggest city Mosul. The group’s capital in Iraq. It was a
symbolic loss. Mosul is where the group declared a Caliphate, or Islamic
territory, in 2014. This set them apart from other terrorist organizations. They
weren’t just a network of jihadists strung out across several countries like
Al Qaeda. They governed actual territory which they called the Islamic state. Now
with the loss of Mosul, the fall of this ISIS Caliphate seems imminent. So what
happens when Isis is gone? Problem number one is that these fighters are going to want to go home. So in 2014 when ISIS captured a huge swath of territory
in Iraq and Syria, tens of thousands of foreign fighters came from all over the
world to join the caliphate. According to UN estimates as of July
2016 there are upwards of 30,000 foreign fighters. So most of these fighters came
from countries like Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, but hundreds also
came from countries like Belgium, Germany, the UK, and even a few dozen from the
United States. So these fighters were drawn to ISIS for all sorts of different
reasons, but a big one was that it had actual territory and was supposed to be
building a Caliphate based on its own extreme interpretation of Islamic law.
ISIS propaganda pushed this narrative in flashy violent videos and magazines
online encouraging people from all walks of life, not just fighters, to come and
help build this glorious Islamic state. And the people who came were not just
young men, they weren’t just fighters, there were women children and even
families who came as well. But now as ISIS territory shrinks and the state
that they tried to build collapses, anyone who survives will have to find
somewhere else to go… and that’s a major problem because many of these people are
now indoctrinated, there now well-connected and they’re capable of
carrying out deadly terror attacks. A similar dynamic actually happened back in the 1980s in Afghanistan. So thousands of foreign fighters flocked to
Afghanistan to help the Afghan mujahideen fight the Soviet invasion.
After the Soviets left a lot of these fighters dispersed to various different
theaters of jihad including Bosnia, Chechnya, Somalia, Sudan, and elsewhere.
These fighters ended up forming a loose network of transnational jihadists, most
of whom had links to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda,
thanks to their time fighting in Afghanistan. And some of them actually
went on to carry out attacks against the West, including attacks against the
United States. So the worry now is that ISIS fighters will do something similar
but this time they might actually make it home to places like Europe and launch
attacks there. So the second problem is what to do with the US military after
ISIS falls. Right now the US is helping local forces in Iraq and Syria
to defeat ISIS. There are currently around 1,000 US troops in Syria and
around 6,000 US troops in Iraq. Mosul which was ISIS’s capital in Iraq has
fallen and right now the US is helping Syrian local forces to defeat ISIS in
Raqqa its so-called capital there. So as those two cities fall ISIS has been
spreading out to rural areas. The Trump administration had two choices. Option
one is to keep the US troops there which would lead them in harm’s way. Or option
two is to bring them home, which increases the risk that the region
breaks out into war again. Option 1 is a big political risk for Trump. He promised
during the campaign that he would not get involved in foreign wars that he
would actually invest American money and time and jobs and research in the United
States. And so if Trump were to keep troops in the region it would be
admitting that he’s going against the political philosophy he espoused during
the campaign and currently during his presidency. Option two is definitely also
a risk for Trump if US troops were to leave that opens a space for sectarian
violence to break out in the region. Let’s take a look for example at what
happened in 2011 the Obama administration took most of its troops
out of the region that gave the Shiite government in Baghdad the space to crack down on Sunni population throughout the country and ISIS took advantage of that.
ISIS was seen as the defender against the Shiite government and was able to
gain support and allow for its rise. So while it doesn’t necessarily mean
that it’s troops leave an ISIS type group or ISIS 2.0 itself would grow out of
that absence of US troops but that risk certainly exists. A deadly California
shooting rampage. A lone gunman to pledge allegiance to ISIS. Both incidents
carried out by so-called lone wolves Problem number three is ISIS moving from a place to an idea. Up until now ISIS had one goal: defend the territory it already
had in Iraq and the territory already had in Syria. The problem is on the verge
of losing both. When that happens ISIS goes from being the kind of place
people go to fight to being the idea that people fight for.
It’s an idea that’s compelling it’s an idea that its followers are willing to
kill for and as followers are willing to die for. When they first came to power
people thought it’s a group that has its own territory, it wants to control that
territory, but it’s not al-Qaeda, it’s not a terror group that wants to carry out
attacks outside of its borders in the West. That was proven tragically wrong in
October of 2015.. “this is the bomb ISIS claims they use to bring down the
Russian passenger plane over the Sinai Peninsula.” In their online magazine they
posted photos of the bomb that they said had been used to blow up the plane. And
that was a reminder for was about to come. A wave of ISIS attacks that have
killed hundreds of people in London, in Paris, and in Nice. And have inspired
attacks that have killed dozens here at home in California and in Orlando. It’s
worth remembering that these are not always attacks carried out by people who
are part of ISIS. In many cases these are people who are radicalized in the
countries where they lived and that’s the danger of the idea. Take what
happened in San Bernardino, California where a married couple killed 14 people.
Or in Orlando where a single shooter killed 49 people. In both cases ISIS
claimed responsibility but in both cases there is no connection between those
people and Isis. They got radicalized over the Internet
Isis has known that propaganda matters and ISIS is really good at it. It has
people all over the world who use English language Arabic language to have
Facebook pages and Twitter accounts that are full of incredibly slickly produced
videos. They’re really compelling and if you’re someone predisposed to have that
worldview, they can push you over the edge from just thinking that’s an idea
worth killing for, to actually killing for it. ISIS takes it
so seriously that it refers to these people as media
operatives and says those media operatives are carrying out a form of
martyrdom akin to killing, to literally killing for the cause. And at the end of
the day that’s the hardest thing about ISIS. It can be beaten
on the ground in Iraq and Syria. It is being beaten on the ground in Iraq and
Syria, but it’s going from being a place to an idea. And it is impossible,
impossible to defeat an idea.

100 thoughts on “What happens after ISIS falls?

  1. Correction: At 0:18, a previous version of the video mistakenly suggested that Turkey-backed forces are fighting ISIS in the west. In fact, the Russia-backed Syrian army and its allies are fighting ISIS in the north and west. The error has been rectified.

    We also want to clarify that the color coded lines that appeared in the previous version at 0:18 did not indicate a border or the frontline. The lines were meant to illustrate that ISIS was under attack on all sides. That highlight has now been removed to avoid any confusion.

  2. What to do with the troops? Easy mabye fix the damage that you caused repair the country don't let it get worse

  3. ISIS is dying 🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀

  4. I love VOX and your videos but I’m increasingly getting annoying with how you separate Somaliland from mainland Somali. They may have claimed independence but so did Catalonia but I don’t see you separating them from Spain. Somaliland hasn’t internationally been recognised as its own state and until then you have no right to separate them on the map.

  5. Partyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy 😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀😀🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎 worldwide 😀 😀🌎 🌎 worldwide 😀 😀🌎 🌎 jajajajajaja jajajajaja jajajajajajajajajaja jajajajaja 😀 jajajajajajajaja 😀 jajajajajaja jajajajajajajajajaja 😁 😁 jajajajajaja jajajajajajajajajaja 😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁😁 😁 jajajajajaja 😁 😁😁 😁 jajajajajaja

  6. الولايات المتحدة هم من جلبوا القاعدة
    لمحاربة الاتحاد السوفيتي و دعش لا تختلف
    عن القاعدة فـ هي نفس الفئة، أما روسيا وحلفائها
    هم من يحاربون القاعدة والداعش واتباعهم

  7. Im just happy that we killed and kicked isis in iraq
    Cuz many brave soldiers died because of them
    And every soldier is brave when he defend his country/family/what he loves

  8. 🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀_ISIS is gone!_
    🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀

  9. If US troops were to leave Syria and Iraq well Trump may request Putin to deliver an attack
    and support the forces that the US use to assist.

  10. Im glad the terrorists in marawi in the phillipines are no longer a threat. It lasred more than 100 days. 100 days of explosions and deaths.

  11. If they just shut off the internet on war area in the middle east then the communication with the outside world will be gone for them.

  12. The day there is a public holiday for eid, Hanukkah, diwali and all world religious day. America is not a free man's country. It's a Christian country disguised as a free man's world. Gotta beat the draconians

  13. Thank you President Trump for defeating ISIS, bringing almost all of our troops home and most importantly for saving out country!

  14. Obama: We are going to pull our troops out of Iraq.
    2 weeks later: Deadly terrorist group pops out of nowhere.
    Obama: We need to stay in Iraq.

  15. LOL.. fast forward 2019 and ISIS is still running amuck. Every 3 months the U.S. announces the defeat of ISIS. I'd say they're not doing to bad for a band of rag tag merry men running around in a wide open desert.

  16. 6:30 You should have also mentioned that no movie producing company in the entire Middle East produce as half good videos as these guys do….Hmmmm…wonder who showed them how.

  17. The Attack ISIS part why phillipines wasnt there in fact in Marawi,Mindanao Phillipines the Collaboration of ISIS and the Maute brothers made a freaking war!

  18. Still trying to tell us al qaeda was responsible for 9.11.. a man in a cave orchestrated it all without the knowledge of the IsraelI government and the American government.. would you give yourself a slap..when are you going to tell us about American support for isis.. and Israel given medical support to injured terrorist's. All these sunni terrorist's killing anyone and everyone but not one bullet fired at Israel.. strange ? but dogs don't bite the hand that feeds..

  19. It is not americans who join ISIS in syria. It was refugees who go to developed country for better life and some go back to join terrorism.

  20. 😐😐😐😐😐😐The Isis scums came from other countries like ISIsreal and KSA ,usa….act …and u still call it civil war in iraq

  21. The whole problem is the religion there. Im iraqi and im 100% sure. Sunnis and shias shaikhs convince people by using religion to join them and then they free prisoners to join them too

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